Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

A "study" found that living by a church helps keep drivers safe and that the riskiest place to live is within one mile of a restaurant (see Here and Here). The firm that conducted the study identified more than 500 variables that are highly correlated to auto accidents (relevant questions not addressed: are they statistically signficant? economically significant? what is the causation?). Among the more interesting variables are occupation (how is this variable defined, job/jobless?), street width and chiropractors per capita (I actually believe this one).

I would love to see the methodology used in the study.  And until I do; I am siding with Mark Twain.

Other interesting points raised by commentators over at the IJ:

It is likely that being near a church is correlated to another variable, such as speed limit in area, that can logically be traced to a lower accident rate

Think of the normal layout of a city. Restaurants are in commercial areas, downtown, at the mall etc. Meanwhile, most churchs are in residential areas.

Don't most churches have schools in them as well?

Comments

[Jim]

Marty, I will side with Benjamin Disraeli, who is the person to whom the "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics" quote should be attributed (not Mark Twain).

[Martin]

Jim-That's Ty who posted it.
On another subject...I think that it would be restaurantist to discriminate against people who live near Fat Matts Rib Shack, though. Think of what Ralph Nader will do when he gets a hold of this model!

I just did a quick web search and some people agree with Ty on the source of the quote and some agree with you.

[R.J. Lehmann]

Actually, it's not a question of choosing Twain OR Disraeli. Twain unquestionably wrote it. It's in his 1906 autobiography. But in writing it, he claimed it was something Benjamin Disraeli once said. Except, of course, that there is no record of Disraeli ever saying it in his speeches or his writings, and Twain left it intentionally vague as to whether the attribution was meant to be tongue-in-cheek.

[Martin]

Wasn't Mark Twain's other name really Benjamin Disraili? Are there any photographs of them together? Hmmmm, I wonder....

[R.J. Lehmann]

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B0002XDOBC.01._SCLZZZZZZZ_.jpg

I believe that's Twain on the upper left.